Social Security projections '09

On Aug. 7, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released the 2009 update of its long-term Social Security projections, covering the 75-year period 2009-2083. CBO "projects that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2043." The report concludes:

Long-term budget projections require a stable economic backdrop. For these projections, CBO assumed that even a large increase in federal debt would not affect economic growth or real interest rates after the first 10 years. However, CBO projects that under current law, federal debt will increase substantially, resulting in higher interest rates and slower economic growth than are assumed in this report. If that occurred, the actual shortfall in Social Security’s finances would be greater than that projected in this report.

CBO's Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update
      Report (pdf, 44pp/328kB)
      Director's blog