Pandemic flu effects - from macro to you

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yesterday issued an update to its December 2005 report on the macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic. As stated in the cover letter, this update focuses on "changes in the level of preparedness." The federal government's preparedness policy is evolving in three areas: vaccines and vaccine production capacity, antiviral drugs and other medications to mitigate the effects of a pandemic, and preparing state and local government responses to an outbreak.

Since the December 2005 assessment, CBO notes several developments: additional studies, one of which predicts a milder impact than previous estimates; the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) contracting with six vaccine manufacturers to be able to inoculate, by 2011, the entire U.S. population within six months of an outbreak; the Administration's publication this month of a National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan (pdf, 4MB, 233p., from the Homeland Security Council); and the enactment of the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act, P.L. 109-148 (pdf), at 119 Stat. 2818, which protects "countermeasure" manufacturers from liability.

A Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues (pdf, 132KB, 22p.), May 22, 2006

A Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues (pdf, 312KB, 50p.), Dec. 8, 2005

HHS has created a pandemic-avian flu website which includes planning and response information for each state.

For Hawaii - pandemic flu information:

• HHS site
• Hawaii Dept. of Health (DOH) site
• Hawaii Pandemic Flu Summit, April 25, 2006