Social security - long term

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated its long-term (100-year) projections for Social Security. From its June 2006 report:

At the present time, Social Security revenues are greater than outlays, but as the baby-boom generation continues to age, outlays will grow substantially faster than revenues. CBO projects that outlays will begin to exceed revenues in 2019 and that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2046.

CBO's projections of benefit levels indicate that future beneficiaries will receive higher retirement benefits--and pay higher Social Security taxes--than current beneficiaries do, even after adjustments for inflation and for the reductions that occur after the trust funds are exhausted. However, those benfits will represent a smaller percentage of their preretirement earnings than is the case now.

Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security, (pdf, 480KB, 26p.), June 2006

CBO first released long-term projections in June 2004 and updated them in March 2005:

The Outlook for Social Security (pdf, 1.2MB, 49p.), June 2004

Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security
(pdf, 936KB, 16p.) (also available in html), March 2005